Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 2.024511 2.125769 2.233731 2.358215 2.498847 2.654115 2.840407
2025-07-06 1.881381 2.007123 2.146136 2.313214 2.511436 2.743079 3.040751
2025-07-13 1.822142 1.968856 2.135929 2.343940 2.601719 2.919486 3.357076
2025-07-20 1.791584 1.957633 2.151787 2.401526 2.724288 3.144348 3.768147
2025-07-27 1.740252 1.916555 2.126615 2.403338 2.772558 3.274281 4.068814
2025-08-03 1.697339 1.882003 2.105657 2.406616 2.820084 3.405583 4.395365
2025-08-10 1.632476 1.816746 2.041928 2.348542 2.776827 3.398130 4.491562
2025-08-17 1.593420 1.781462 2.013859 2.335103 2.793611 3.480561 4.759495
2025-08-24 1.558922 1.750128 1.988863 2.323471 2.810813 3.564070 5.049225
2025-08-31 1.528104 1.722021 1.966419 2.313400 2.828534 3.649280 5.365890
2025-09-07 1.509393 1.708438 1.962070 2.327713 2.883308 3.802818 5.883839
2025-09-14 1.462765 1.657220 1.905587 2.264830 2.813490 3.729299 5.840720
2025-09-21 1.437785 1.634302 1.887393 2.257791 2.833916 3.825968 6.280278
2025-09-28 1.402216 1.596416 1.847533 2.217162 2.797322 3.812210 6.419297
2025-10-05 1.393365 1.593233 1.854535 2.245307 2.874431 4.026218 7.351274
2025-10-12 1.393253 1.601413 1.877195 2.297745 2.996881 4.356501 9.046406
2025-10-19 1.376421 1.586574 1.867039 2.299416 3.031522 4.507609 10.266549
2025-10-26 1.360969 1.573079 1.858173 2.302404 3.068472 4.671671 11.900534
2025-11-02 1.328817 1.536151 1.814935 2.249595 2.999933 4.573582 11.733283
2025-11-09 1.310648 1.517870 1.797804 2.237354 3.005525 4.658750 13.098107
2025-11-16 1.293831 1.501021 1.782186 2.226753 3.013264 4.751171 14.882740
2025-11-23 1.278199 1.485420 1.767882 2.217571 3.022903 4.850930 17.317025
2025-11-30 1.269891 1.479625 1.767472 2.230621 3.076100 5.080919 23.993088